Kazakhstan’s Oil Overproduction Puts OPEC+ Cuts at Risk, Pressuring Prices

Kazakhstan’s Rising Oil Output Undermines OPEC+ Cuts

Kazakhstan continues to exceed its OPEC+ production limits, raising concerns across oil markets as June output is projected to increase by another 6% month-over-month to reach 2.14 million barrels per day, according to the Kazakh Energy Ministry.

This marks the second consecutive month of significant overproduction, suggesting a growing risk of OPEC+ instability just weeks before the alliance meets to decide on production policy for the second half of the year.

OPEC+ May Be Forced to Reverse Course

While condensates are technically excluded from OPEC+ cuts, Kazakhstan’s overall contribution — oil and condensates — is well above its agreed levels, which could undermine the group's supply discipline.

If OPEC+ raises production by an estimated 400,000 barrels per day for a fourth consecutive month starting in August, analysts warn that a massive oversupply could emerge, especially as summer demand fades and geopolitical tensions remain stable.

Oil Prices Likely to Fall Further by Autumn

The oversupply risk is mounting just as oil demand peaks seasonally, making prices increasingly vulnerable in Q3 and Q4 of 2025. Without renewed demand or supply disruptions, Brent and WTI crude benchmarks could face sustained downward pressure.

“As soon as the higher demand in the summer months subsides and if geopolitical threats do not increase anew, oil prices will inevitably fall further,” one market analyst noted.

Key Takeaways:

• Kazakhstan’s June output forecast: 2.14 million bpd (+6% MoM)
• Impact on OPEC+: Undermines agreed production limits
• Oil market outlook: Risk of oversupply, potential price drop by autumn

Related Content on Tredu:

• WTI Falls Below $66 After Israel-Iran Ceasefire
• USD Under Pressure Ahead of Powell's Testimony
• Brent Crude Forecast for Q3 2025