By tredu.com • 7/3/2025
Tredu
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to trade near its year-to-date peak of 0.6590, holding firm despite underwhelming Australian trade data for May. The AUD/USD pair remains supported above 0.6560 as traders adopt a cautious stance on the US Dollar (USD) ahead of the closely watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report due later today.
The USD was pressured on Wednesday after the ADP employment change came in far weaker than expected, showing a net job loss of 33,000 compared to forecasts of a 95,000 increase. This disappointing data has amplified speculation over imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts, weakening the Dollar’s footing in the short term.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a trade surplus of 2,238M AUD for May, significantly below expectations of 5,091M AUD. However, the Aussie’s resilience suggests that markets are more focused on the global risk sentiment and USD weakness, rather than local fundamentals.
The upcoming US NFP report is expected to provide a clearer picture of the US labor market and influence the Fed’s policy trajectory. Markets anticipate a 110,000 increase in payrolls, and any surprise in the data could cause significant volatility in USD pairs, including AUD/USD.
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