Australian Dollar Gains for Fourth Straight Session on USD Weakness and Job Vacancy Rebound

Australian Dollar Gains for Fourth Day Amid USD Weakness and Job Market Optimism

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is extending its rally against the US Dollar (USD) for a fourth consecutive session on Thursday, with the AUD/USD pair staying firm near recent highs. Optimism over a potential US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough and rebounding Australian job vacancy data are helping fuel risk-on sentiment.

AUD/USD Benefits from Fragile Ceasefire and US Dollar Weakness

The US Dollar remains under pressure, primarily due to concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence and political interference following recent remarks from US President Donald Trump. These developments have benefited the Aussie, especially as geopolitical tensions ease slightly.

According to Bloomberg, Trump stated that the US and Iran may meet next week, although he questioned whether diplomacy was still necessary given the extensive damage inflicted on Iranian infrastructure by American military strikes. A fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran, brokered by the US, has further improved risk sentiment, supporting commodity-linked currencies like the AUD.

Solid Job Vacancy Data Supports AUD Outlook

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported a 2.9% rise in job vacancies during the three months to May, partly recovering from a 4.3% decline in the previous quarter. This suggests the Australian labor market remains resilient, particularly in the professional and construction sectors.

However, compared to a year ago, vacancies are down 2.8%, marking the smallest annual decline in two years, which keeps the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on a cautious path. Economists still expect the RBA to cut rates by 25 basis points in July, as wage growth and inflation remain muted.

Market Focus Shifts to US Q1 GDP Data

Traders now await the release of the final Q1 US GDP Annualized figures, due later Thursday. The data could sway Fed rate cut expectations and either reinforce or challenge the current bearish bias on the USD.

Conclusion

The AUD/USD pair remains supported by global risk appetite, soft US Dollar conditions, and modestly improving local employment data. While expectations for an RBA rate cut persist, broader macro and geopolitical conditions are currently working in favor of the Aussie.

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